What causes climate change? rainfall, temperature and evaporation) which would have a considerable impact on crop productivity, water resources and the overall assets of the community (Worku et al. Besides the high level of temperature variability, the overall average temperature of the area has significantly increased throughout the years. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Afar and parts ofEritrean coastal areas experience rainfall in this period. Conversely, low flow conditions will intensify during the warm months. Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. kiremit season (JuneSeptember), belg season (MarchMay), bega season (OctoberFebruary) and annually for all subdivisions, while the long-term trend of temperature was assessed for annual average, annual minimum and maximum temperature. In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. When the tropical depression is observed in the SWIO, the daily rainfall is significantly decreased. Summer rainfall regionThis region comprises almost all parts of the country, except the southeastern and northeasternlowlands. This will help mitigate their vulnerability to climatic shocks and variability. Spatiotemporal variability and trends of rainfall and temperature in the Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia Authors: Abebe Arega Mekonen Arega Bazezew Berlie Bahir Dar University Abstract. The results from the coefficient of variations shown in Table2 revealed that in comparison with the kiremit rainfall season, during the bega and belg seasons rainfall varies considerably more. The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. Crop production showed high correlation with belg and kiremit rainfall; only annual rainfall and barley crops showed stronger correlation. Latitude,humidity and winds, with varying magnitude have also significant impacts on temperatureconditions in Ethiopia. 5.3.2. All the given crops show considerably high correlation with belg rainfall. **10% level of significance. 2013; Pingale et al. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link. Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). Therefore, long-term analysis of climatic trends has been used to characterize the situations (Singh et al. 33 days from submission to first decision on average. Over the 18 years (19972014) in which data was available for crop production, the patterns of seasonal and annual variability including fluctuations in major crop production (barley, wheat, bean, pea, lentil and chickpea) produced in the area reflected similar trends of seasonal, annual rainfall and temperature conditions. Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. During this time, thecentral highlands, southeastern highlands and lowlands receives rainfall as the south easterliesbring moist winds. Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. The details of these seven stations are presented in Table2. For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. Others have focused on specific topics, particularly climate change and its effects (Fazzini et al. Therefore, there were no gaps in the data series. The Impacts of Relief on Biophysical and Socioeconomic Conditions, CHAPTER FOUR DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND WATER RESOURCE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 4.3. However, there is a slight temperature increase in summer. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. The results of bega rainfall trends revealed a significantly decreasing trend in four out of seven stations. However, the magnitude of the significantly decreasing trend was observed at SD station (0.90 mm/year and 16.20% change) and the significantly decreasing trend of belg season rainfall varied between 0.12 mm/year and 10.00% at GIN station to a significantly increasing trend of 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% at DB station. Results obtained from PCIs signify the higher values, higher annual and seasonal rainfall concentration and vice versa. This happens because the MT-CLIM algorithms VIC incorporates infer an overly large positive trend in atmospheric moisture content in this region, likely due to an underestimate of the effect of increasing aridity on RH. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. The monthly rainfall data are for 132 points of 10 10 km grids reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite observations, which cover the period between 1983 and 2013. Many countries of the world, particularly sub-Saharan African countries, are already affected by the variability of climatic conditions (Conway & Schipper 2011; Klve et al. 2015 . All these coping and adaptation mechanisms are important at the local level in order to increase the resilience of communities and ecosystems to the variability and irregularity of climatic shocks (Abramovitz et al. The wetness of this region is particularly due to the prepotency of moist aircurrents of equatorial Westerlies called the Guinea Monsoons. 2012; Fazzini et al. The correlation between rainfall during the months of MaySeptember and crops has a positive relationship, except in the cases of beans, peas and chickpeas, which are inversely correlated with rainfall during the month of June. Therefore, community-based soil and water conservation practices help the communities to diversify their livelihood activities. This is probably due to the fluctuation and variability of the seasonal and inter-annual rainfall pattern of the Beressa watershed during the last few decades, as indicated in Table3, which is similar to other studies (Muhire & Ahmed 2015; Zhao et al. Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. Air temperature estimation using remote sensing satellite provides a new way of conducting studies in the field of climate change study. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). Previous Topic. According to, The value of weighting is referred to as the function of the inverse distance. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability, Modeling Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow Using Projections of the 5th Assessment Report for the Bernam River Basin, Malaysia, Future Changes in Water Supply and Demand for Las Vegas Valley: A System Dynamic Approach based on CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Projections, Differentiating Snow and Glacier Melt Contribution to Runoff in the Gilgit River Basin via Degree-Day Modelling Approach, Performance Evaluation and Comparison of Satellite-Derived Rainfall Datasets over the Ziway Lake Basin, Ethiopia, Effect of projected climate change on potential evapotranspiration in the semiarid region of central India, Simulating Streamflow in Response to Climate Change in The Upper Ewaso Ngiro Catchment, Kenya. Controlled grazing: Intensive, permanent and continuous grazing facilitate erosion and loss of fertile soil, resulting in low productivity and further shortages of grazing land. However, it hasno significant coverage compared to other seasons. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. Autumn and Spring rainfall regionsThe region comprises areas receiving rain following the influence of southeasterly winds. The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. Seasonal analysis of rainfall obtained from MK test statistic results are presented in Table3. Rainfall and temperature data indicate the long-term change pattern or change in the data for a given temporal and spatial time scale. The guidelines for interpretation are presented in Table1. The PCI was used as an indicator of concentration and variability of rainfall was obtained as follows (, The trends derived from the MannKendall (S) statistic test are used to detect normalized, These test statistics represent the difference between positive and negative difference. However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of the Basin experienced declining trends on annual and seasonal timescales. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. The available data for crop production (Q/ha) over 18 years (19972014) for the major crops such as barley, wheat, beans, peas, lentils and chickpeas were obtained from the district office of Agriculture and Central Statistical Authority. It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. The northeasterly winds crossing the Red Seacarry very little moisture and supplies rain only to the Afar lowlands and the Red Sea coastalareas.iv. Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. Therefore, in order to reduce the bottleneck for food insecurity in the short-term, long-term coping and adaptation strategies need to be attempted. The average annual aerial rainfall of the Beressa watershed is 891 mm, with a coefficient variation of 30.6% and standard deviation of 227 mm. 2015). 2005). In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and theannual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. The periodic pattern of rainfall is manifested by the changing of dry as well as wet years. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Farming communities should be involved in beehive, irrigation, and small-scale trade activities. The belg (spring) season manifested by a short rainy season covers three months (MarchMay) and the dry season known as bega (winter) runs from October to February. The rate and variability of increasing temperature have dramatically increased, making it more difficult for local communities to foresee the intensity and magnitude of temperature even for the next few years. 5.3.1. 2011; Jain & Kumar 2012; Suryavanshi et al. 2016). doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2018.064. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. As presented in Table3, the Sen's slope estimator indicates an upward trend in four stations and a downward trend in three stations for annual rainfall. Water harvesting is particularly important for less rainy seasons and integrated water management, and will provide supplementary irrigation during deficits. According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). Understanding projections of extreme precipitation is part of a resilient response to its impacts. Spatiotemporal Distribution of RainfallRainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. In Ethiopia, as in allplaces in the tropics, the air is frost free and changes in solar angles are small making intensesolar radiation. As the shift takesplace, equatorial westerlies from the south and southwest invade most parts of Ethiopia bringingmoist winds.However, these winds decrease the length of rainy seasons and magnitudes on the line of theshift. 2013). In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. Bean, pea, chickpea and lentil production are particularly related to kiremit rains in all stages because these crops are sown in the second week of June. Spatiotemporal Distribution of Rainfall Rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by complexities. To avoid the generalities inherent in regional projections, projections focussing on an individual country are necessary. In line with the study by Wu et al. 2014). This is particularly the case for the local community, whose economy is susceptible to variability and the erratic nature of rainfall and water shortage; recurrent drought is a common phenomenon. Location, Shape and Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO THE GEOLOGY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 2.2. For example, months from March to June in Ethiopiahave records of highest temperatures. The Mann-Kendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. Barley, bean and chickpea show significant correlation with maximum temperature. 2006; Rashid et al. Is it warming or cooling? To encompass the system, it needs an understanding of the position of Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITC), pressure cells, and Trade Winds. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). 2016). During the years 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was recorded as being slightly above the mean. Elsewhere, in other parts of Ethiopia, similar conclusions are reached by Merasha (1999) and Seleshi & Zanke (2004) that the bega and belg rainfall seasons are more highly variable than the main rainy season (kiremit season). (2014), it was concluded that a general tendency of increasing warm temperature, extreme variability and inconsistent precipitation trend was recorded in Ethiopia. The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. The future climate also shows a continuing positive trend in the temperature extreme indices as well as more frequent extreme rainfall events. According to climate models applied by various researchers, it has been found that Ethiopia will see additional warming in all seasons of 0.72.3 C by the 2020s and 1.42.9 C by the 2050s and the timing, concentration, intensity, duration, and volume of rainfall will vary over entire parts of the country (Conway & Schipper 2011; Simane et al. The area is characterized by diverse topographic conditions such as mountainous and dissected terrain with steep slopes. The percentage change over a period of time can be obtained from Sen's median slope and mean by assuming the linear trend in the long-term series using the following formula: In statistical terms, the moving average is also known as running average, used in order to explore a set of various data by creating an average value of various subsets for a data set. The problem is high in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the population live on rainfed agriculture. In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. Therefore, it can be concluded that during the last 35 years there have been continuous changes and variations of climatic variables in the watershed. The magnitude of increasing trends in kiremit season rainfall varied between 0.33 mm/year and a percentage change of 6.13% (DBS station) to 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% (DB). The mean annual rainfall of the basin spatially varies from 417 to 1012 mm, with a noticeable temporal variation at a monthly time scale. Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged. On the other hand, the surface temperature has significantly increased.
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